Will the unvaccinated hand the next presidential election to Biden?

There are some patterns to who has chosen not to get vaccinated, they tend to be younger, tend to have less education, and tend to be minorities, but the strongest correlation is they tend to be Republican. In fact, while only 6% of Democrats say they will not consider getting a vaccination, 47% of Republicans say they will remain vaccine-free. That’s particularly impressive when you consider that Republicans tend not to be minorities or younger.

This could spell big trouble for the Republican Party in both 2022 and 2024 because there are some swing states where the margin of victory or loss is counted in the tens of thousands of votes. For example, in both Arizona and Georgia, the presidential race in each of those states was won by less than 12,000 votes.

Let’s do the math; Arizona has 5.4 million voting-age adults, and almost half of their votes went to each candidate. That’s 2.7 million voting-age Republicans, and if Arizona is average then 47% of them have decided to roll the dice on getting infected. 47% of 2.7 million people is 1.27 million. Assuming for a moment that the Delta variant is no more deadly than Covid Classic or Covid Alpha, that’s a potential loss of 17,700 Republican voters, assuming that Republicans are of average age. That’s more than the 10,447 votes Biden won the state by 2020.

But Republicans tend to be older than average, 56% are over age 50, and the Delta variant tends to be more deadly in general, some estimates are…